Cold Drinks Sesonality
The consumption within the Cold Drinks category is one of the most influenced by the seasonal factor. In 2009, compared to 2008, the category shrinks by 2,1% in volume, driven by the decreased frequency of buying. However, the whole category increases by 1,7% in value year-on-year, caused by the higher average prices (+4%).
The negative trend of consumption within the Cold Drinks category on a yearly basis to a great extent is driven by the decreased consumption in the hot months of 2009 (the second and third quarter) when the households buy on the average 5% less liters of the category compared to the corresponding period a year ago. That is explained by the higher average prices along with the decreased frequency of buying and smaller consumer basket. As for the cold months (the first and the fourth quarter), the dynamics is towards an increase of 1% in volume year-on-year.
In the hot moths of 2009 the households’ in-home consumption increased by 8,4% in volume on the average compared to the cold months. A year ago the seasonal factor contributed to a 15% change in the in-home consumption in favor of the hot months.
Within the Cold Drinks category, the seasonal factor is observed most clearly in the baskets of the beer, ice tea and the carbonated soft drinks. As for the bottled water, nectars, juices and still drinks, the consumption is not marked by the seasonal factor.
Within the beer category there is an increase of the in-home consumption of 90% in volume in the hot months of 2009 compared to the cold ones.
Year-on-year the beer consumption shrinks by 5,5% in volume and 0,5% in value. As for the hot months of 2009, there is a decrease of 6,6% in volume compared to the corresponding period a year ago.
The ice tea is a small segment of the Cold Drinks category. However, within the ice tea segment, the volume consumed by the Bulgarian households in the second and third quarters of 2009 doubles – it increases by 111%.
The seasonal factor could be attributed to the carbonated soft drinks category as well, though with a smaller impact on the final consumption. In 2009 there is an increase of 2% in volume in the hot months compared to the cold ones. Year-on-year, in 2009 the category shrinks by 7,4% in volume, driven mainly by the decreased consumption in the hot months.
